What is this Rank of Ranks all about?
The Rank of Ranks is Dynastybball's attempt at redraft rankings. Like everything else on this website, the goal isn't to replicate what others do, but instead add our own unique thing. Hopefully that's a good thing, but it also can be a confusing thing. So blog posts like this one are meant to explain our tools, ranks, models, and analytics.
So Rank of Ranks. A name shamelessly inspired from Persian King of Kings from old, is meant to survey the vast landscape of basketball projections and provide a set of rankings based upon the best assessments of multiple experts. Our sources are linked in the top right of the document, should you want to know who we think of when we say 'expert'.
Based on that survey, we can generate (at least) five pieces of data. Running through them in turn:
1. A player's best case rank in a season
2. A player's worst case rank in a season
These are fairly straight-forward. Neither is a guarantee, but they represent the top and bottom of a player's expected range.
3. A player's median case rank in a season
This is actually more of an average than a median. This rank should be reflective of what I'd call the "consensus" opinion on a player. If you play fantasy basketball a lot, you should look at this number and think, "yeah...that's what most people are saying."
4. Our Preferred Rank
This is a weighted, blended average arrived at after looking at this historical accuracy of different predictions and predictors. This rank may look surprising in some cases, but it's our best guess of where players will place in a season. And if history is a guide, this rank will be more accurate than any other (based upon the testing described in the prior article).
5. Confidence Score
Some players elicit consensus opinion. Most think that Harden is a top 3 player, for example. Others are harder to place. Where should Klay go? What about Myles Turner? Confidence score reflects the standard deviation between predictions. The bigger the score, the larger the range of outcomes. The smaller, the more likely the rank is going to be accurate.
Think of it as a boom or bust predictor. Some players aren't likely to swing widely, others will. In early rounds, look to avoid players with a high score, as they could fizzle out and cost you dearly. In later rounds, swing on a few of the guys with higher ceilings (even if it means accepting lower floors).
And that's it!